Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3da7…4f75 other 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$14
politics 14% −$12
other 9% +$15
tech 2% −$1
sports 2% +$4
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 46 +9.3% -1.1% 22% 17% -8.9%
all 60 +7.0% -3.2% 22% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 13% -9.5%
10% -12.4% 13% -18.2%
15% -20.9% 13% -26.1%
20% -28.7% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage590d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 +$4 +42%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $198 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $101 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $101 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$6 +76%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $7 +$3 +46%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$10 +104%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $13 +$10 +75%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 02 $51 $0 +0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5) Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $96 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $93 +$3 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $13,553 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $20 11m
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 19h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 14d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $15 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $16 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $16 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $37 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.36 · official $80.36 (match) · 264 history records