Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3da3…a83d
weather · 419 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$180 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$178 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$39
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses282 / 126
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)408 / 419
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 11 History 408 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$19
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 78¢ 73¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? No 97¢ 93¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? No 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 80¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? No 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? No 62¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Yes 84¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? No 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27? No 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? No 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 28? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? No 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28? No 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 28? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 27? No 88¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 27? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28? No 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Gujarat Titans 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 27? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$14
weather 32% −$115
crypto 12% −$34
other 9% −$35
finance 6% −$14
world 4% +$10
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$23
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 81¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +1.7% -8.0% 70% 25% -6.7%
≤30d 175 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 29% -9.8%
≤90d 336 -5.8% -14.8% 69% 23% -16.3%
all 408 -5.6% -14.6% 69% 25% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 25% -14.1%
10% -22.7% 14% -22.3%
15% -30.2% 8% -29.8%
20% -37.0% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.04 · official $39.04 (match) · 1325 history records