Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3da2…639f
crypto · 142 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$44 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses138 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 142
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 139 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$40
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Down 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 98¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 96¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$38
finance 3% +$1
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 9m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +2.2% -7.5% 99% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 139 +2.2% -7.5% 99% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 139 +2.2% -7.5% 99% 0% -7.6%
all 139 +2.2% -7.5% 99% 0% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 0% -7.6%
10% -16.4% 0% -16.4%
15% -24.5% 0% -24.5%
20% -31.9% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $48.66 (match) · 283 history records