Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d95…de90 other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$63 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$25
14 days−$41
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$28
politics 27% −$22
sports 17% −$9
crypto 10% −$12
culture 7% −$7
world 4% −$4
economics 3% −$1
finance 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 66 -1.4% -10.8% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 117 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 145 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 125
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage108d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Yes 97¢ 94¢ $77 $75 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $271 −$3 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $160 −$3 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $154 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $591 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 16 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $345 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $163 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $219 −$2 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $166 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $29 −$7 -26%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $248 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $57 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $160 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $102 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $206 −$3 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $110 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $77 55m
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $65 1h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $66 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $49 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $20 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $30 14h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $55 14h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $56 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 20h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 28h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $45 29h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $45 33h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 33h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 39h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 39h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 43h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $19 44h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $19 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $48 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $48 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 87¢ $22 2d
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 94¢ $24 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $57 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $59 3d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $8 3d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.74 · official $74.74 (match) · 533 history records