Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3D 0x3d95…9e68 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$360 (-2%) realized −$105 · open −$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 58L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$236est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$294
7 days−$549
14 days−$549
30 days−$549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$566
other 18% −$142
politics 13% −$40
world 7% −$166
economics 5% $0
crypto 0% +$10
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -12.2% -20.6% 32% 32% -13.9%
≤30d 56 -12.2% -20.6% 32% 32% -13.9%
≤90d 56 -12.2% -20.6% 32% 32% -13.9%
all 93 -14.2% -22.3% 38% 25% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 25% -12.4%
10% -29.8% 20% -20.8%
15% -36.6% 18% -28.5%
20% -42.8% 15% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$73 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$255
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions6
Markets (closed)93 / 100
History coverage603d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+81%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+194%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$8 -15%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$7 -13%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $133 −$11 -8%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $406 −$211 -52%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $255 −$129 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$287 +141%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $232 +$253 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $284 +$265 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $153 −$8 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 +$136 +89%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $202 −$93 -46%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $254 +$218 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 +$261 +128%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $474 −$230 -49%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $143 +$268 +188%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $214 −$182 -85%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $153 −$14 -9%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $408 −$219 -54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $102 −$76 -75%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$94 -46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $651 +$771 +118%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $254 −$4 -2%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $304 −$17 -6%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$67 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $300 −$157 -52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $404 +$202 +50%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$87 -43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $152 +$86 +56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $456 +$129 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $505 +$276 +55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$29 -28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $459 −$107 -23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 58m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 9¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $98 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $491 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $51 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $485 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 43¢ $153 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $284 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 43¢ $144 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $288 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $152 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 34¢ $109 13h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $232 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $153 17h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $202 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $102 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.51 · official $51.51 (match) · 235 history records