Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d91…91fa other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$570 (+24%) realized +$577 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$550
7 days−$172
14 days+$493
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$595
crypto 10% −$95
sports 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 38% -19.0%
≤30d 18 -19.9% -27.6% 39% 39% +10.0%
≤90d 18 -19.9% -27.6% 39% 39% +10.0%
all 18 -19.9% -27.6% 39% 39% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 39% +10.0%
10% -34.5% 33% -0.5%
15% -40.8% 28% -10.1%
20% -46.6% 22% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$79 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$577
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage14d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $397 +$342 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $494 +$815 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $149 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $156 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 90¢ $58 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $134 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $738 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $397 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.57 · official $122.57 (match) · 33 history records