trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 17¢ | 17¢ | $13 | $13 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 12 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $63 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Dec 11 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 25 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 19 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 12 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Aug 11 | $68 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? | Aug 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Aug 11 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? | Aug 10 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 10 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 10 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Aug 10 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? | Aug 09 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? | Aug 08 | $45 | −$19 | -42% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? | Aug 08 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 08 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Aug 08 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 08 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Aug 07 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 07 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 07 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Aug 06 | $66 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Aug 06 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 33% | 17% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 33% | 17% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 33% | 17% | -10.0% |
| all | 28 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 21% | 4% | -12.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 4% | -12.2% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 0% | -20.6% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 0% | -28.3% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -35.3% |