Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d90…3bbd sports 728 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$264 (-4%) realized −$264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%406W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$184
other 45% −$51
crypto 5% +$11
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -15.8% -23.8% 49% 49% -3.7%
≤30d 203 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 52% -9.8%
≤90d 728 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 53% -12.4%
all 728 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 53% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 53% -12.4%
10% -22.7% 48% -20.8%
15% -30.2% 40% -28.4%
20% -37.1% 34% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses406 / 322
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)728 / 728
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 728 Trades
no open positions (176 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$14 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$15 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $9 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records