Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3D 0x3d8f…d1e3 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+11%) realized +$18 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$31
sports 15% +$22
crypto 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 33% 33% +37.2%
≤30d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 33% 33% +37.2%
≤90d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 33% 33% +37.2%
all 18 +32.1% +19.5% 33% 33% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.5% 33% +37.2%
10% ← realistic here +8.1% 28% +24.1%
15% -2.4% 28% +12.1%
20% -12.0% 22% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×6.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 24¢ 18¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 57¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Yes 32¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$14 +173%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$26 +503%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 +$4 +12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$23 +208%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +473%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $2 47m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 51m
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $3 59m
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $31 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $9 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $15 2h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.72 · official $31.72 (match) · 60 history records