Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d8f…eb22 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-14%) realized −$88 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +16.7% +5.6% 62% 62% +22.2%
≤30d 13 +16.7% +5.6% 62% 62% +22.2%
≤90d 52 -12.0% -20.3% 40% 37% -13.5%
all 52 -12.0% -20.3% 40% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 37% -13.5%
10% -28.0% 31% -21.7%
15% -34.9% 31% -29.3%
20% -41.3% 27% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage61d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 9¢ 42¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+367%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$59 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 26 $60 −$39 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 26 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 26 $1 +$8 +807%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 26 $2 +$5 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 25 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 25 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 24 $26 +$21 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.33 · official $26.39 · 131 history records