Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3D 0x3d8f…c2ea other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,903 (-2%) realized −$1,903 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%14W / 74L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,154per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$93
30 days−$1,813
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$48
politics 41% −$52
sports 4% −$1,843
economics 3% −$4
tech 2% −$2
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 12% -16.7%
≤90d 88 -1.5% -10.9% 16% 10% -11.2%
all 88 -1.5% -10.9% 16% 10% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 10% -11.2%
10% -19.4% 10% -19.7%
15% -27.2% 8% -27.5%
20% -34.3% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,552) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$29 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$1,903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses14 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1,154
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $268 $268 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $528 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $541 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $744 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $752 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,554 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $816 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $862 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $845 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $63 +$54 +86%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $275 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $322 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $354 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,940 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $495 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 25 $1,768 −$1,768 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $81 +$22 +27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $66 +$30 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $2,526 −$4 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $1,668 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $4,473 −$5 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $1,562 −$3 -0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $4,255 −$5 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,505 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,268 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,695 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 25 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,314 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $595 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $596 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $527 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $528 6h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $453 26h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $454 29h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $540 45h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $541 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $494 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $495 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $537 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $538 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $268 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $743 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $744 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $845 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $846 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $750 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $752 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $756 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $757 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $788 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $789 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $646 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $647 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $782 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $783 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $814 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.63 · official $267.63 (match) · 243 history records