Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

3D 0x3d8b…418e other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$3 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+13.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+25.7%	+13.7%	75%	50%	-18.9%
≤30d	4	+25.7%	+13.7%	75%	50%	-18.9%
≤90d	4	+25.7%	+13.7%	75%	50%	-18.9%
all	4	+25.7%	+13.7%	75%	50%	-18.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.7%	50%	-18.9%
10%	+2.8%	50%	-26.7%
15%	-7.1%	50%	-33.8%
20%	-16.2%	50%	-40.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized−$3

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$17	−$17	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$9	+$8	+93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$8	$0	+4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$4	+$4	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$17	44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$9	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$8	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$8	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$4	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.22 · official $99.23 (match) · 9 history records