Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3D 0x3d85…197f sports 44 markets active 4h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38,997 (+14%) realized +$38,997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,265per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$2,397est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76,090
7 days+$35,036
14 days+$37,200
30 days+$37,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$65,309
other 31% −$10,839
world 8% −$20,479
crypto 1% +$3,210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 50% +2.8%
≤30d 44 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 52% +2.8%
≤90d 44 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 52% +2.8%
all 44 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 52% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 52% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 52% -7.1%
15% -19.2% 52% -16.1%
20% -27.1% 52% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$8,628) neutral
Persistence
early +29% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,277 vs −$6,301 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38,997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$2,397
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage13d
Avg bet$6,265
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $55,443 +$58,289 +105%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,775 −$4,700 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8,763 −$8,628 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8,722 +$9,170 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20,577 −$20,279 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19,330 +$14,738 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29,495 +$27,500 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,042 +$3,210 +79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16,652 −$16,401 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20,233 −$19,952 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14,048 −$13,869 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23,786 +$31,878 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6,450 −$6,440 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21,853 −$21,549 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2,122 +$1,826 +86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $733 −$722 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,055 +$945 +90%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $21 +$20 +96%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $887 +$1,005 +113%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $194 −$190 -98%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $278 −$275 -99%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1,088 −$1,078 -99%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $460 +$40 +9%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $469 −$469 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $1,075 +$924 +86%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $439 +$422 +96%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $587 −$567 -97%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $681 −$670 -98%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $783 +$667 +85%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $782 −$771 -99%
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) Jun 05 $380 +$420 +111%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $650 −$639 -98%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $67 +$3 +4%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $249 +$251 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 05 $381 +$363 +95%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $477 +$523 +109%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $768 +$732 +95%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 05 $706 +$794 +112%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $410 +$590 +144%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $1,717 +$1,141 +66%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $438 +$562 +128%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $1,043 +$902 +86%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,351 −$2,315 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $3,632 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $3,498 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $12,713 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $18,161 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $8,717 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $8,717 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $5 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $2,387 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $2,387 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $8,763 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $8,717 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $3,166 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $3,166 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $4,749 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $4,749 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $4,749 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4,832 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4,832 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4,832 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4,832 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,198 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,198 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,198 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,198 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7,108 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,198 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,198 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,198 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $4,163 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records