Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d85…6437 crypto 1409 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$402 (-1%) realized −$388 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%1310W / 58L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day106.5pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$47
14 days−$110
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$54
crypto 16% +$90
other 16% −$11
tech 1% −$14
finance 1% +$4
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 10% -8.8%
≤30d 1368 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 1368 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 1% -9.2%
all 1368 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 1% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$23 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1,069
Realized−$388
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1310 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1368 / 1409
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day106.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 1368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $549 $552 +$3 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 92¢ $251 $241 −$9 (-4%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $137 $136 −$2 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Down 95¢ 96¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Down 95¢ 97¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? No 99¢ 93¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 34¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-66%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $262 +$12 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $552 +$26 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $400 +$15 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $406 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $253 +$12 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $503 +$30 +6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $252 −$58 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $351 +$15 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $552 +$26 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $503 +$25 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $320 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $207 +$3 +2%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $503 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $252 −$72 -29%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $508 +$22 +4%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2 −$1 -30%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 10 $145 −$32 -22%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $98 −$22 -22%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 10 $2 +$1 +37%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $252 +$10 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $503 +$19 +4%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $252 −$56 -22%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $534 +$26 +5%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $515 +$23 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $551 +$26 +5%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $2 −$1 -47%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 06 $503 +$24 +5%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Indonesia Jun 06 $232 +$8 +4%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 06 $503 +$23 +4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Philippines Jun 06 $42 +$1 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Myanmar Jun 06 $546 +$6 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,805 +$89 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $2 $0 +15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $361 +$3 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $2 $0 +17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $364 +$2 +1%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 05 $2 −$1 -45%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $2 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $15 34m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 96¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 62¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 63¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 63¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 64¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 62¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 64¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 65¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 67¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 70¢ $68 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 70¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 74¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 72¢ $74 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 73¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 73¢ $57 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 73¢ $238 5h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 99¢ $50 7h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 96¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 96¢ $14 10h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,068.67 · official $1,068.68 (match) · 3500 history records