Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3d83…bdfc crypto 624 markets active 5h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,912 (-27%) realized −$1,911 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%286W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$139
14 days−$219
30 days−$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$765
other 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -7.4% -16.2% 83% 2% -15.5%
≤30d 316 -40.5% -46.2% 40% 6% -21.3%
≤90d 624 -21.0% -28.5% 46% 28% -20.0%
all 624 -21.0% -28.5% 46% 28% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 28% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 27% -27.6%
15% -41.6% 27% -34.6%
20% -47.3% 26% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,911
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses286 / 338
Open positions1
Markets (closed)624 / 624
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$1 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$6 -24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$10 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$8 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records