Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d82…ea1f other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$385 (-4%) realized −$312 · open −$73
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%47W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days−$611
30 days−$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$156
world 11% −$88
sports 10% −$199
politics 5% −$124
culture 4% +$79
crypto 3% −$128
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +12.6% +1.8% 67% 67% +30.1%
≤30d 31 -41.9% -47.5% 32% 32% -51.1%
≤90d 57 +20.7% +9.2% 44% 44% -11.1%
all 121 +0.2% -9.3% 39% 35% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 35% -11.6%
10% -18.0% 31% -20.1%
15% -25.9% 28% -27.8%
20% -33.2% 27% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$31 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$312
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses47 / 74
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage169d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 15¢ $72 $2 −$70 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +73%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $96 +$62 +65%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $91 −$90 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots Jun 15 $101 −$97 -96%
Elye Wahi: 2+ shots Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$16 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $32 −$22 -70%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$43 +415%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 +$56 +272%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 24 $31 +$76 +250%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $92 +$205 +223%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? May 12 $120 −$32 -27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $46 +$32 +70%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $30 +$30 +101%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Draw at halftime? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $10 +$51 +509%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 14 $10 +$31 +307%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? Apr 14 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Randers FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $42 +$73 +175%
Spread: Randers FC (-1.5) Apr 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 12 $15 +$20 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $96 33h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $82 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 9d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9 9d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $41 9d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $31 9d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $51 9d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 9d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 9d
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots SELL Yes $4 9d
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots BUY Yes 67¢ $101 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 10d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 10d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $71 10d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 10d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 10d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10d
Elye Wahi: 2+ shots BUY Yes 53¢ $10 10d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 10d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 58¢ $20 10d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 11d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 11d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 50¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.40 · official $9.40 (match) · 332 history records