Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d82…5eff sports 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$46 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%45W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$6
crypto 12% −$18
sports 11% −$9
politics 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 2 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 3 -1.5% -10.8% 0% 0% -12.6%
all 111 -3.3% -12.5% 41% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$874
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses45 / 66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage518d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $893 $874 −$19 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $952 −$42 -4%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $165 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $111 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 22 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $1,025 +$25 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 27 $27 −$9 -33%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $124 +$16 +13%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $124 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Oct 09 $103 +$21 +21%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Freiburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mainz win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mgladbach win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Werder Bremen win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Union Berlin win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will FC Koln win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hamburger SV win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will FC Heidenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will St Pauli win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $919 52m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $910 52m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $137 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $177 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $638 1h
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $111 114d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 95¢ $8 169d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 98¢ $687 169d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 98¢ $0 169d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 98¢ $316 169d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 98¢ $21 169d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 171d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 174d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 174d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 184d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 184d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 184d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 184d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 184d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $100 188d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $140 188d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 87¢ $124 236d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $124 236d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $124 250d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $124 250d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $17 257d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $86 257d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $103 257d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $103 264d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1 264d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $874.12 · official $874.12 (match) · 400 history records