Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d7e…6be6 sports 975 markets active 1h ago coverage 690d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$763 (-1%) realized −$1,004 · open +$241
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%336W / 586L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,564
7 days−$8,391
14 days−$8,502
30 days−$8,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$403
sports 34% −$342
crypto 11% +$318
world 7% +$439
politics 4% −$119
culture 2% −$563
economics 1% −$58
finance 1% −$73
weather 0% −$25
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -94.2% -94.8% 4% 4% -85.7%
≤30d 189 -84.8% -86.3% 9% 9% -75.0%
≤90d 244 -59.3% -63.2% 24% 24% -49.5%
all 922 -21.1% -28.6% 36% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 34% -11.4%
10% -35.4% 30% -19.8%
15% -41.7% 23% -27.6%
20% -47.4% 19% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$30 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

690d coverage
Net worth$3,623
Realized−$1,004
Unrealized+$241
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses336 / 586
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions39
Markets (closed)922 / 975
History coverage690d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 922 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? No 64¢ 84¢ $513 $665 +$152 (+30%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $500 $599 +$99 (+20%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $400 $451 +$51 (+13%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No 76¢ 72¢ $305 $288 −$17 (-6%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 44¢ 87¢ $132 $261 +$129 (+98%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 98¢ $150 $258 +$108 (+72%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 57¢ 90¢ $60 $95 +$35 (+59%)
Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 30¢ $200 $85 −$115 (-58%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 73¢ 86¢ $70 $82 +$12 (+17%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+1%)
OKX IPO in 2026? No 57¢ 89¢ $46 $71 +$26 (+56%)
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 52¢ $31 $67 +$35 (+113%)
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 67¢ 81¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs get engaged in 2026? No 75¢ 52¢ $78 $55 −$24 (-30%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 91¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $70 $40 −$30 (-43%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+36%)
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes 48¢ 18¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-64%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 306 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $202 +$88 +44%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $101 +$24 +24%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Iran strike Kuwait in March? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $60 −$60 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $230 −$46 -20%
Will PAOK win on 2026-02-19? Jun 24 $103 +$34 +33%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-18? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-01-23? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 8? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-30? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-01? Jun 24 $115 −$115 -100%
Will PSV vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-25? Jun 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump and Machado handshake last 10–15 seconds? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Macron out in 2025? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-31? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-08? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Jun 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands BUY 34¢ $33 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Swede BUY 54¢ $175 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? AND Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côt BUY 27¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 23h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia 2 BUY 38¢ $102 23h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 31h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $42 7d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 7d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 1 BUY 51¢ $101 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? AND Exact Score: Any Other S BUY 71¢ $101 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? AND Exact Score: Canada 1 - BUY 2¢ $3 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 5¢ $6 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 14¢ $21 7d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 0¢ $10 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $2 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $8 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $18 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $3 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 28¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,623.34 · official $3,834.34 · 2654 history records