Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d7d…e616 sports 362 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,802 (+3%) realized +$1,813 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%208W / 144L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$989now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days−$598
30 days−$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,518
other 3% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.4% +8.0% 50% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 28 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 43% -19.5%
≤90d 220 +8.6% -1.7% 60% 51% -7.4%
all 352 +7.2% -3.0% 59% 51% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 51% -7.2%
10% -12.3% 47% -16.1%
15% -20.8% 38% -24.2%
20% -28.5% 30% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$70 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$989
Realized+$1,813
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses208 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions10
Markets (closed)352 / 362
History coverage140d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $661 −$85 -13%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $203 +$105 +52%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $222 −$222 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $172 −$170 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$38 +37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$6 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $169 +$193 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$97 -64%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$70 +137%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$96 +94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$35 +35%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$36 +70%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$33 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $224 +$204 +91%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $332 −$329 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $132 −$130 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $193 +$81 +42%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$58 +114%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $142 +$17 +12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $574 +$1 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $573 +$1 +0%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 25 $573 +$1 +0%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $572 +$1 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $572 +$1 +0%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 17 $571 +$1 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 16 $571 +$1 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 13 $569 +$1 +0%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 09 $203 +$200 +98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 09 $51 +$88 +172%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 09 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 09 $157 −$155 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 08 $106 −$5 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 08 $101 +$18 +18%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 08 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 07 $51 +$74 +146%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $51 +$106 +207%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 07 $51 +$42 +83%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 07 $51 +$49 +96%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $203 +$101 +50%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 07 $132 −$130 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 6h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $308 6h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $276 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $300 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 8h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 21¢ $19 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $102 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $101 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 20¢ $20 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $51 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 65¢ $101 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 97¢ $138 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $101 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 61¢ $95 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $101 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $169 13d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $47 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $988.79 · official $988.85 (match) · 895 history records