Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d7a…725c sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,293 (-3%) realized −$1,293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%87W / 102L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$161
14 days+$161
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$2,638
other 25% +$1,399
world 0% −$44
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +280.8% +244.5% 50% 50% +59.2%
≤30d 7 +127.6% +105.9% 29% 29% +42.4%
≤90d 135 -4.0% -13.2% 44% 38% -6.1%
all 189 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 41% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 41% -11.2%
10% -25.7% 29% -19.7%
15% -32.9% 22% -27.5%
20% -39.5% 14% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$100 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses87 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage165d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1276%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $205 +$97 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $13 −$13 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $38 −$17 -44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $49 −$28 -58%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $242 −$211 -87%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 03 $192 +$50 +26%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 01 $1 +$7 +695%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $3 −$3 -95%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $30 +$12 +40%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $82 +$1 +1%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $196 +$1 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $134 +$61 +46%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $471 −$239 -51%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $1 $0 +46%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $29 +$31 +106%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $30 +$15 +52%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $312 +$62 +20%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $285 +$26 +9%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $248 +$39 +16%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $150 −$149 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $1 +$16 +1610%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $150 −$15 -10%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $163 −$2 -2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Apr 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $165 +$28 +17%
LoL: Dignitas vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $34 −$34 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $184 −$122 -66%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $166 +$18 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $302 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $205 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $70 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 41¢ $14 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 57¢ $20 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 3¢ $1 19d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 30¢ $17 41d
76ers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 70¢ $18 41d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 80¢ $21 41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 41d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 29¢ $31 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $242 43d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 82¢ $242 44d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 64¢ $192 44d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45d
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 3¢ $3 45d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner SELL FaZe 10¢ $8 46d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY FaZe 1¢ $1 46d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 0¢ $1 47d
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 0¢ $0 47d
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 2¢ $3 47d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 1¢ $1 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records