Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d7a…b2e4
sports · 269 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$121 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$123 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$92
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses122 / 132
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions15
Markets (closed)254 / 269
History coverage231d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 15 History 254 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$79
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 18¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 46¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 22¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 58¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 57¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Cavaliers 33¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 67¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pittsburgh Pirates 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 60¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +68%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 +$3 +67%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $7 +$3 +47%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $5 −$3 -66%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 06 $1 −$1 -55%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jun 06 $10 −$8 -80%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 06 $3 $0 -1%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $5 +$3 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $5 +$5 +101%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $6 −$2 -33%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $6 +$2 +42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $7 +$3 +42%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $10 +$4 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $10 −$2 -16%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $11 −$10 -99%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 01 $5 +$1 +29%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $5 +$3 +59%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$3 -61%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $5 +$6 +109%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 28 $3 −$2 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$49
other 17% −$32
crypto 5% −$47
tech 5% +$24
world 1% −$7
culture 1% −$9
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 21h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 21h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 31h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 36h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $2 45h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $5 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $5 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 92¢ $5 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 28¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 22¢ $5 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $5 4d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $3 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Milwaukee Brewers 96¢ $1 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Milwaukee Brewers 96¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -11.2% -19.7% 52% 43% -21.2%
≤30d 125 -8.1% -16.8% 49% 44% -16.1%
≤90d 248 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 44% -17.5%
all 254 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 44% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -17.2%
10% -26.9% 39% -25.2%
15% -34.0% 33% -32.4%
20% -40.4% 24% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.46 · official $92.46 (match) · 596 history records