Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d7a…4f7b crypto 1452 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%1034W / 418L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day68.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$21
14 days−$44
30 days−$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$346
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 +1.0% -8.7% 74% 69% -6.2%
≤30d 1452 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 43% -10.7%
≤90d 1452 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 43% -10.7%
all 1452 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 43% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 43% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 24% -19.3%
15% -27.9% 12% -27.1%
20% -34.9% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1034 / 418
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1452 / 1452
History coverage25d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1452 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.13 · official $16.28 (match) · 3130 history records