Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3D 0x3d78…a4cc sports 1064 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$232 (-0%) realized −$230 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%620W / 443L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days−$90
14 days−$6
30 days−$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$898
other 13% +$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.3% -10.7% 61% 61% -15.4%
≤30d 87 -7.2% -16.0% 54% 53% -19.3%
≤90d 344 +2.2% -7.6% 60% 51% -9.3%
all 1063 +5.5% -4.6% 58% 54% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 54% -10.3%
10% -13.7% 50% -18.9%
15% -22.0% 44% -26.7%
20% -29.7% 35% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$56 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$230
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses620 / 443
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1063 / 1064
History coverage211d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1063 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $194 +$56 +29%
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Aishi Das Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $110 +$190 +172%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
ITF Dinard: Anastasiya Kuparev vs Carla Grignac Jun 17 $71 +$77 +108%
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Jun 17 $105 +$25 +24%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic Jun 17 $18 +$7 +40%
ITF Klosters: Jan Kumstat vs Corentin Denolly Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 17 $100 −$30 -30%
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $101 +$51 +50%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $102 +$38 +38%
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: CD Palestino (-1.5) Jun 13 $19 +$5 +28%
Spread: CD Palestino (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $21 +$4 +20%
ITF Brasilia: Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro Jun 11 $17 +$18 +108%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Tucuman: Samuel Heredia vs Hernan Casanova Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Adam Jilly vs Nikita Bilozertsev Jun 10 $13 +$7 +57%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $102 +$38 +38%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mboko/Williams vs Melichar/Routliffe Jun 10 $93 −$93 -100%
ITF Monastir: Sofia Avataneo vs Soo Ha Jang Jun 10 $111 −$111 -100%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $75 +$91 +122%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 09 $2 +$2 +122%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Rada Zolotareva Jun 09 $107 +$108 +101%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $103 +$117 +114%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $71 +$39 +55%
Heilbronn: Max Hans Rehberg vs Marvin Moeller Jun 08 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $11 +$9 +76%
ITF Brasilia: Marjorie Souza vs Luiza Fullana Jun 07 $77 +$23 +31%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $75 −$15 -20%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 06 $40 +$60 +152%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 06 $103 +$137 +134%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $102 +$58 +57%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 04 $105 +$95 +91%
ITF Caserta: Laura Pigossi vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 04 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 03 $102 −$102 -100%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 02 $15 +$10 +70%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Tereza Martincova Jun 02 $34 +$16 +46%
Birmingham: Jacob Fearnley vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 02 $29 −$29 -100%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Ivan Iutkin vs Amaury Raynel Jun 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Birmingham: Greet Minnen vs Alina Charaeva Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Li vs. Golubic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 41¢ $104 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $194 26h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 36¢ $110 44h
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Aishi Das BUY Kanon Sawashiro 73¢ $103 44h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 59¢ $32 2d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 59¢ $68 2d
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik BUY Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ $105 3d
ITF Dinard: Anastasiya Kuparev vs Carla Grignac BUY Carla Grignac 48¢ $67 3d
ITF Dinard: Anastasiya Kuparev vs Carla Grignac BUY Carla Grignac 48¢ $5 3d
ITF Klosters: Jan Kumstat vs Corentin Denolly BUY Jan Kumstat 59¢ $15 3d
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 71¢ $100 3d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 71¢ $18 3d
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel BUY Laia Petretic 55¢ $101 3d
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 72¢ $102 4d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $101 5d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $67 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $2 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $2 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $1 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $2 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $1 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $21 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $0 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $0 6d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Branko Djuric 30¢ $2 6d
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson BUY Gabriela Andrea Knutson 53¢ $21 6d
ITF Brasilia: Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro BUY Joao Victor Couto Loureiro 48¢ $6 8d
ITF Brasilia: Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro BUY Joao Victor Couto Loureiro 48¢ $2 8d
ITF Brasilia: Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro BUY Joao Victor Couto Loureiro 48¢ $2 8d
ITF Brasilia: Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro BUY Joao Victor Couto Loureiro 48¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.00 · official $100.00 (match) · 2768 history records