Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3D 0x3d76…0a53 other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+1%) realized +$84 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%38W / 48L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$20
other 39% +$4
sports 9% +$3
politics 5% +$10
economics 2% −$4
finance 1% +$69
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.9% -11.3% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 22 -0.8% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 39 +1.5% -8.2% 38% 8% -8.8%
all 86 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 8% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 8% -8.7%
10% -16.0% 5% -17.4%
15% -24.1% 5% -25.4%
20% -31.5% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses38 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)86 / 91
History coverage492d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $216 $215 −$1 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 56¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $176 +$2 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $130 +$3 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $33 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $449 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $214 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $245 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $466 −$9 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $475 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $216 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $406 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $245 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $210 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $488 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $419 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $212 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $97 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $279 +$30 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $172 −$3 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $155 +$69 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $89 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $21 +$4 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $50 +$3 +7%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $242 −$4 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $960 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $570 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $349 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $252 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $585 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $1 $0 -13%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean Jun 03 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $5 +$12 +228%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 23 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $186 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $180 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $154 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $174 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $121 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $56 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $133 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $130 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $236 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $236 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $115 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $99 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.97 · official $215.42 (match) · 326 history records