Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d75…26fb
sports · 200 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$445 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$478 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$84
Realized−$478
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses108 / 86
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions6
Markets (closed)194 / 200
History coverage29d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 6 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$286
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri Andrea Guerrieri 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson Jones Emerson Jones 65¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson Xinyu Wang 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton Ben Shelton 71¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Coco Gauff 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Johannus Monday 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Clement Chidekh 65¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs David Jorda Sanchis Andrej Nedic 67¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Dusan Lajovic Dusan Lajovic 69¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Casper Ruud 72¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Moyuka Uchijima Moyuka Uchijima 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Hugo Dellien 65¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Vicenza: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Mika Brunold Mika Brunold 63¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Berrettini 63¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta Thiago Agustin Tirante 68¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Chisinau: Laslo Djere vs Timofey Skatov Laslo Djere 79¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi Luciano Darderi 72¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Luca Castelnuovo vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Luca Castelnuovo 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$16 -63%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$34 +134%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$20 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$7 +26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $26 −$11 -43%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$20 -20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 03 $25 +$17 +65%
Tyler: Yuta Shimizu vs Dane Sweeny Jun 03 $10 +$12 +114%
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Trevor Svajda Jun 03 $20 +$14 +67%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $20 +$11 +52%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 03 $25 +$12 +48%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis Jun 03 $20 +$8 +42%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $20 +$14 +67%
Centurion 2: Dominik Palan vs Alec Beckley Jun 02 $20 +$12 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $25 +$9 +36%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Millen Hurrion Jun 02 $20 +$13 +62%
Birmingham: Tristan Schoolkate vs Arthur Fery Jun 02 $20 +$13 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $15 +$12 +79%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 02 $30 −$14 -47%
Heilbronn: Mika Petkovic vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 02 $20 +$11 +55%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 02 $25 +$12 +46%
Birmingham: James Duckworth vs Billy Harris Jun 02 $30 −$7 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Centurion 2: Akira Santillan vs Alexander Donski Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Calvin Hemery Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Perugia: Remy Bertola vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 02 $25 −$4 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $20 +$21 +105%
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 02 $20 +$14 +70%
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Jun 01 $30 +$5 +15%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $30 +$11 +37%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $30 +$20 +67%
Heilbronn: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Pedro Martinez Jun 01 $30 +$16 +52%
Foggia: Elizara Yaneva vs Lisa Pigato Jun 01 $20 +$13 +62%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Ilia Simakin Jun 01 $30 +$9 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $30 +$18 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $24 −$13 -54%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 01 $20 −$15 -75%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson Jones Jun 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Birmingham: Mary Stoiana vs Lulu Sun Jun 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Centurion 2: Luca Castelnuovo vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Jun 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$478
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $8 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 33¢ $9 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $5 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 68¢ $80 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 84¢ $100 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 9¢ $2 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 9¢ $3 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $20 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $15 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 29¢ $9 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $25 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $25 25h
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer SELL Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 32¢ $16 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 49¢ $20 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $30 12d
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 59¢ $20 12d
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 65¢ $20 12d
Centurion 2: Dominik Palan vs Alec Beckley BUY Alec Beckley 63¢ $20 12d
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Millen Hurrion BUY Robert Strombachs 61¢ $20 12d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Henrique Rocha 68¢ $25 12d
Heilbronn: Mika Petkovic vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 64¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.4% -13.5% 33% 33% -15.5%
≤30d 194 -13.2% -21.5% 56% 56% -17.2%
≤90d 194 -13.2% -21.5% 56% 56% -17.2%
all 194 -13.2% -21.5% 56% 56% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 56% -17.2%
10% -29.0% 53% -25.1%
15% -35.9% 42% -32.4%
20% -42.1% 20% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.18 · official $84.19 (match) · 343 history records