Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3d73…75a0 crypto 777 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,999 (-4%) realized −$1,948 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%379W / 394L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$196
14 days+$606
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$4,778
other 23% +$453
world 14% +$364
sports 6% +$248
politics 2% −$30
tech 0% −$25
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% +0.4%
≤30d 95 -14.5% -22.6% 42% 35% -11.0%
≤90d 578 -17.7% -25.5% 43% 35% -17.1%
all 773 -8.5% -17.3% 49% 40% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 40% -16.6%
10% -25.2% 34% -24.6%
15% -32.4% 28% -31.9%
20% -39.0% 22% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$44 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized−$1,948
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses379 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)773 / 777
History coverage273d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 773 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $293 $332 +$39 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $134 $126 −$8 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $191 $92 −$99 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $66 $82 +$17 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $155 −$5 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $195 +$23 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $429 +$47 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $44 −$22 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $169 +$83 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $485 −$41 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $192 +$75 +39%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $116 +$37 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $911 +$509 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $210 −$75 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $291 +$84 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $228 −$101 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $203 +$15 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $335 +$151 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $243 −$21 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 03 $428 −$408 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $141 −$64 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $287 +$21 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $159 −$84 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $116 −$64 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $297 +$106 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $185 +$22 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $100 −$9 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $53 −$26 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $25 −$11 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $33 +$8 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $21 +$27 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $44 −$10 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $259 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 25 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 25 $171 −$163 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 25 $105 +$142 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 25 $211 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 25 $105 +$41 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 25 $105 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 25 $87 +$22 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $134 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $47 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $48 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $141 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $155 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $156 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 31h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $59 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.50 · official $632.50 (match) · 2428 history records