Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3d72…2d0b sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$711 (-5%) realized −$710 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%85W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$431
14 days+$540
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$387
other 9% +$17
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +8.4% -1.9% 60% 48% +8.1%
≤30d 74 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 49% +5.2%
≤90d 156 -11.8% -20.2% 54% 46% -12.2%
all 156 -11.8% -20.2% 54% 46% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 46% -12.2%
10% -27.8% 35% -20.6%
15% -34.8% 26% -28.2%
20% -41.2% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$39 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$710
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses85 / 71
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 170
History coverage63d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) T1 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$27 -53%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $20 −$9 -44%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$29 +97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sen Jun 26 $55 +$38 +69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$47 +93%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$9 +47%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $78 +$33 +42%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 −$14 -54%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 +$2 +6%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $100 −$1 -1%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$10 -68%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $90 +$13 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 Jun 25 $46 −$4 -9%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND South Jun 25 $51 −$1 -2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Switze Jun 25 $51 +$44 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $35 +$9 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$6 -12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $49 +$21 +42%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$15 -76%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $23 −$23 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $31 +$91 +296%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Spr Jun 23 $51 +$64 +126%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $100 +$12 +12%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $144 +$13 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -17%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $130 +$23 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$50 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 21 $51 −$40 -79%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $51 +$128 +251%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$9 -84%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$23 +75%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $17 −$6 -39%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Will E BUY 26¢ $30 53m
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 88¢ $100 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 62¢ $50 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 11h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL 30¢ $11 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 12h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY 52¢ $20 13h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 50¢ $30 15h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 64¢ $50 17h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sen SELL 86¢ $93 17h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sen BUY 50¢ $55 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 37h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 SELL 99¢ $111 38h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $12 38h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $25 39h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL 88¢ $29 39h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL 44¢ $43 39h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 59¢ $20 40h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY 69¢ $78 40h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 40¢ $41 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will BUY 39¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $103 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 71¢ $32 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.43 · official $178.20 · 384 history records