Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d6d…caa3 weather 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$326 (-10%) realized −$325 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate91%48W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$353
14 days−$359
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.6% -26.4% 79% 5% -25.5%
≤30d 53 -3.9% -13.0% 91% 15% -20.0%
≤90d 53 -3.9% -13.0% 91% 15% -20.0%
all 53 -3.9% -13.0% 91% 15% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 15% -20.0%
10% -21.4% 4% -27.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -34.7%
20% -35.9% 0% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$87 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized−$325
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses48 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage20d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 26? No 98¢ 98¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 25 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 25 $140 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 25 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 25 $120 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $101 +$19 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 21 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $101 −$96 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 19 $101 −$100 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $44 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$4 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $43 −$36 -84%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $67 +$13 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $49 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 9? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $14 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $8 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 8? Jun 09 $29 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 08 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $120 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $140 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $120 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $120 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $120 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $120 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? SELL No 4¢ $4 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $80 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $101 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $101 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $100 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $100 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $101 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 15¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $44 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $40 13d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $30 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $30 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.78 · official $478.78 (match) · 111 history records