Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:19:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d6b…9f76 sports 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%105W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$24
weather 23% −$5
crypto 22% −$8
other 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +44.0% +30.2% 60% 60% +40.6%
≤30d 41 +28.1% +15.9% 56% 56% +20.6%
≤90d 203 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 49% -8.0%
all 203 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 49% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 49% -8.0%
10% -16.5% 44% -16.8%
15% -24.6% 41% -24.8%
20% -32.0% 32% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses105 / 98
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)203 / 236
History coverage73d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Hai Jun 14 $2 +$4 +217%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $1 +$2 +172%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 $0 -35%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 +$1 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1 $0 +46%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $2 +$2 +112%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 16 $1 $0 -3%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 +$2 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 13m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Scor BUY 47¢ $1 27m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 36¢ $1 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $1 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria (-2.5) AND Will France win o BUY 24¢ $1 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY 49¢ $1 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: N BUY 12¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND France vs BUY 23¢ $1 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 47¢ $1 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $1 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $1 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 43¢ $1 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 37¢ $1 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 45¢ $1 44h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Netherlands BUY $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Côte d'Ivoi BUY 22¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 54¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY 53¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Ger BUY 17¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Netherlands BUY 15¢ $1 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Sp BUY 37¢ $4 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 AND Wil BUY 26¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Austra BUY 12¢ $2 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Spread BUY 11¢ $2 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerl BUY 15¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $2.96 · 512 history records