Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d6a…45e0 sports 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$456 (-4%) realized −$458 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%90W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days+$308
14 days+$460
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,107
other 19% −$430
world 3% −$221
politics 3% +$82
tech 2% +$50
crypto 1% −$8
economics 0% +$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +86.2% +68.5% 88% 35% +1.8%
≤30d 25 +59.4% +44.2% 72% 36% +6.4%
≤90d 25 +59.4% +44.2% 72% 36% +6.4%
all 199 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 38% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 38% -22.4%
10% -18.3% 32% -29.9%
15% -26.2% 28% -36.6%
20% -33.4% 21% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$33 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$458
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses90 / 109
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)199 / 202
History coverage230d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $600 +$4 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $716 +$143 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$82 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $250 +$3 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1310%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 15 $100 −$4 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $132 +$1 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $245 +$7 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$42 +60%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $103 +$231 +224%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 30 $20 +$24 +122%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC København vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Feb 02 $33 +$73 +223%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Feb 02 $100 +$49 +49%
TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $100 +$74 +74%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $44 −$33 -75%
Will Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Feb 02 $66 −$22 -34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $84 −$42 -51%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $77 −$55 -71%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $88 −$44 -50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $129 −$96 -74%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 02 $66 −$11 -17%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $133 −$44 -33%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $66 −$33 -50%
Will Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw? Feb 02 $13 −$11 -83%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 02 $79 −$35 -44%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $89 −$78 -88%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Feb 02 $55 −$33 -60%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $55 −$22 -40%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $86 −$11 -13%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $97 −$75 -77%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-20? Feb 02 $98 −$65 -66%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Jan 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $34 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $600 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 99¢ $364 32h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 99¢ $221 32h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 99¢ $15 32h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $116 38h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $152 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $93 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $5 2d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $96 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $9 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $29 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $14 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $88 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 97¢ $245 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 99¢ $5 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 99¢ $17 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $25 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $1 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $24 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 99¢ $25 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $25 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $111 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.10 · official $80.10 (match) · 1507 history records