Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3D 0x3d69…35ff other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1
politics 35% $0
economics 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage102d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $117 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $117 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $118 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $116 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $116 13h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $116 14d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $115 15d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 21d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 22d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $116 25d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $116 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 33d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 33d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $116 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $116 37d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $116 41d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $116 42d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 46d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 46d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $117 66d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $117 66d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 69d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 70d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $117 73d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $117 74d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 77d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 77d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $117 82d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $117 82d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 87d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 88d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $117 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records