Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d67…7dac crypto 256 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+1%) realized −$2,772 · open +$3,027
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate48%119W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2,943
crypto 44% −$2,871
economics 2% +$60
politics 2% −$97
culture 0% +$4
weather 0% −$29
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.3% +9.7% 100% 100% +9.7%
≤30d 4 -25.6% -32.7% 50% 50% -37.6%
≤90d 5 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 60% -28.3%
all 250 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 26% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 26% -42.4%
10% -24.8% 15% -47.9%
15% -32.0% 11% -52.9%
20% -38.7% 9% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$9,012
Realized−$2,772
Unrealized+$3,027
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses119 / 131
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)250 / 256
History coverage223d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1,406 $3,395 +$1,989 (+141%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $1,000 $1,789 +$789 (+79%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,492 $1,482 −$10 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,009 $1,103 +$94 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $561 $685 +$123 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $517 $559 +$41 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 13 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 07 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 07 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 07 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 07 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 07 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 07 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 07 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 07 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 07 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 07 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 07 $2 +$3 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 07 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 07 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 07 $6 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 07 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 07 $8 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 06 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 06 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 06 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 06 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 06 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 06 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 06 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 06 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 06 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 06 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 06 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 06 $13 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 06 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 06 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 06 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 06 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 06 $8 +$7 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $531 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $20 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $95 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,012.32 · official $9,012.32 (match) · 1555 history records