Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d63…1b7f other 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$626 (-0%) realized −$613 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate84%173W / 33L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,329per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$2,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$208
14 days+$154
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,052
politics 0% +$18
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 49 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 133 -0.8% -10.2% 83% 8% -10.6%
all 206 +1.8% -7.9% 84% 17% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 17% -9.9%
10% -16.7% 8% -18.5%
15% -24.7% 5% -26.4%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,032) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$292 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$2,105
Realized−$613
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses173 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)206 / 207
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,329
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $2,118 $2,105 −$13 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2,116 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2,106 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2,098 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2,090 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $2,071 +$22 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $2,040 +$33 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $2,036 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $2,030 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2,000 +$31 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,976 +$23 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,966 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,951 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,901 +$55 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,912 −$10 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,900 +$13 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,891 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,888 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,871 +$15 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $938 −$203 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $492 +$28 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $476 +$41 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $221 +$16 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $201 +$17 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $396 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $214 −$15 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $464 −$250 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $441 +$22 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,097 −$99 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $166 −$140 -84%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $675 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $603 +$72 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,308 −$134 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,552 −$101 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $835 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $657 +$182 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $617 +$38 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,044 −$426 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,026 +$16 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $930 +$100 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $892 +$36 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $857 +$35 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,340 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $373 +$483 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $490 −$116 -24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $456 +$26 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,000 −$540 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $952 +$48 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $898 +$54 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $881 +$13 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,119 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,120 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,116 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,117 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,106 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,098 30h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,095 33h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,090 40h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,071 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,040 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,040 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,036 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,030 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,030 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,000 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,999 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,976 4d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,966 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,961 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,951 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,901 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,902 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,912 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,912 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,900 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,899 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,891 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,892 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,888 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,886 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,105.29 · official $2,108.51 (match) · 485 history records