Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3D 0x3d63…67bf crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+23%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$7
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.0% +0.4% 61% 48% +12.3%
≤30d 23 +11.0% +0.4% 61% 48% +12.3%
≤90d 23 +11.0% +0.4% 61% 48% +12.3%
all 23 +11.0% +0.4% 61% 48% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 48% +12.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 43% +1.5%
15% -18.0% 39% -8.3%
20% -26.0% 35% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records