Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d60…6df2
weather · 821 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$591 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$481 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,653
Realized−$481
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses479 / 197
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions339
Markets (closed)676 / 821
History coverage6d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day547.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 339 History 676 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,449
7 days−$481
14 days−$481
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $159 $161 +$2 (+1%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 50¢ 82¢ $60 $99 +$39 (+65%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 76¢ 100¢ $60 $79 +$19 (+32%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 75¢ 98¢ $60 $78 +$18 (+30%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% or more? No 78¢ 99¢ $60 $77 +$17 (+28%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 77¢ 96¢ $60 $75 +$15 (+25%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 84¢ $62 $73 +$11 (+18%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 77¢ 93¢ $60 $73 +$13 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 81¢ 98¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+20%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+4%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 94¢ 99¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? No 99¢ 98¢ $64 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $62 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 85¢ 90¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $59 $63 +$4 (+6%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? No 94¢ 97¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 80¢ 81¢ $61 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? No 94¢ 95¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 90¢ 91¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 6? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -164%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 2? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +142%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 −$3 -2062%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +398%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +1534%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 12 $24 −$47 -194%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 12 $3 −$21 -663%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 34% +$345
crypto 18% +$181
world 15% +$401
other 14% +$134
sports 10% +$497
politics 7% +$252
tech 2% +$46
finance 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $6 0m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 88¢ $53 4m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL No 92¢ $3 4m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 10m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 16m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 99¢ $59 17m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 99¢ $5 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 42¢ $32 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $33 21m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 23m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 22¢ $31 25m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 26m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 70¢ $3 26m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $13 31m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 55¢ $4 33m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 54¢ $4 33m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 54¢ $8 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $2 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 676 +1.9% -7.8% 71% 26% -10.9%
≤30d 676 +1.9% -7.8% 71% 26% -10.9%
≤90d 676 +1.9% -7.8% 71% 26% -10.9%
all 676 +1.9% -7.8% 71% 26% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover547.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 26% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 16% -19.4%
15% -24.7% 12% -27.2%
20% -32.0% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,652.62 · official $10,644.92 (match) · 3500 history records