Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d59…22f9 other 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 25% −$24
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$4
economics 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage131d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $247 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $144 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $322 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $122 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $292 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $762 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $406 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $409 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 3h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $42 5h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 7h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 9h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 10h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 11h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 13h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $42 14h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $42 16h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 18h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 19h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $42 20h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 95¢ $33 20h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $9 22h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $42 23h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $12 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 27h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $2 27h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 29h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $43 31h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 32h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 34h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 35h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 37h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 38h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 39h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1434 history records