Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d55…7ba8 other 16 markets active 5h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-22%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$15
sports 23% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.9% -16.7% 31% 31% -22.4%
≤30d 16 -7.9% -16.7% 31% 31% -22.4%
≤90d 16 -7.9% -16.7% 31% 31% -22.4%
all 16 -7.9% -16.7% 31% 31% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 31% -22.4%
10% -24.7% 31% -29.8%
15% -32.0% 31% -36.6%
20% -38.6% 31% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -87%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +183%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $4 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $3 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $2 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records