Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d52…d6ba other 76 markets active 7d ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$560 (-12%) realized −$560 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$116
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$199
politics 8% −$282
sports 4% −$10
crypto 4% −$68
economics 3% +$21
finance 1% −$20
tech 1% −$7
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 25% -82.0%
≤30d 4 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 25% -82.0%
≤90d 5 -54.5% -58.8% 20% 20% -69.9%
all 75 -13.6% -21.8% 39% 35% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 35% -20.8%
10% -29.3% 31% -28.4%
15% -36.2% 24% -35.3%
20% -42.4% 16% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$40 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$560
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage270d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $15 +$14 +90%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? May 11 $406 −$251 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 13 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 6 be between 2,10 Feb 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 6 be between 1,90 Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 8 be between 1,90 Feb 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Feb 10 $277 −$277 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Feb 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Feb 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 7 be between 1,70 Feb 09 $16 +$23 +150%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? Feb 09 $61 +$25 +41%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $142 +$52 +37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Feb 08 $86 −$34 -40%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $176 +$25 +14%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be between 2,10 Feb 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 4 be between 1,50 Feb 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 4 be less than 1, Feb 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $118 +$82 +70%
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $398 +$102 +26%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season? Feb 06 $43 +$57 +133%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during January press conference? Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 29 be between 2,00 Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 04 $189 +$356 +189%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Feb 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 26 - February 1 be Feb 01 $13 +$6 +45%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $350 −$298 -85%
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 01 $98 +$30 +30%
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 01 $67 +$4 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Feb 01 $259 +$43 +16%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 29 be between 2,20 Jan 30 $57 +$25 +44%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $86 +$9 +10%
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 29 $132 −$21 -16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jan 29 $80 −$10 -12%
Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during January press conference? Jan 29 $20 +$29 +144%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 28 $100 +$133 +133%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jan 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 26 $50 −$28 -56%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 25 $80 +$99 +124%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jan 24 $30 −$20 -66%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 22 $75 −$38 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch? Jan 14 $14 +$4 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 6d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $15 6d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $15 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 15d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $155 39d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $203 51d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $102 51d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $102 51d
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland BUY Switzerland 2¢ $12 126d
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland BUY Switzerland 2¢ $0 126d
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland BUY Switzerland 2¢ $2 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 126d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 7 be between 1,70 SELL Yes 100¢ $39 130d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Patriots 2¢ $2 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 6¢ $6 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Seahawks 96¢ $94 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Seahawks 96¢ $48 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Seahawks 96¢ $50 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $136 131d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 26¢ $52 131d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 131d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 131d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 131d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 131d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.50 · official $39.50 (match) · 390 history records