Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d50…5c94 politics 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% $0
politics 21% −$1
world 18% −$3
economics 11% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.2% -15.2% 12% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 17 -6.2% -15.2% 12% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 17 -6.2% -15.2% 12% 0% -12.9%
all 17 -6.2% -15.2% 12% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 0% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 0% -21.2%
15% -30.7% 0% -28.8%
20% -37.5% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 56¢ $15 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 53¢ $1 5d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 87¢ $8 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 72¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $4 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $7 5d
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 74¢ $7 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 5d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? SELL Yes 87¢ $8 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 92¢ $14 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $10 5d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $0 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $0 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $0 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $0 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $0 5d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 6d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 6d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 6d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 87¢ $1 6d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records