Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d50…4fc7 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$165 (-10%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day188.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -27.2% -34.1% 47% 22% -23.7%
≤30d 32 -27.2% -34.1% 47% 22% -23.7%
≤90d 32 -27.2% -34.1% 47% 22% -23.7%
all 32 -27.2% -34.1% 47% 22% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 22% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 9% -31.0%
15% -46.2% 0% -37.7%
20% -51.4% 0% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day188.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $66 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $132 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $134 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $58 −$19 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $45 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $58 −$27 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $70 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $38 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records