Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d4e…589d crypto 485 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (455 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$221 (-4%) realized −$215 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%225W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day455.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (455 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 492 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 34% -11.9%
≤30d 492 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 34% -11.9%
≤90d 492 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 34% -11.9%
all 492 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 34% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover455.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 34% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 26% -20.3%
15% -31.0% 22% -28.0%
20% -37.7% 20% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses225 / 267
Open positions2
Markets (closed)492 / 485
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day455.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 48¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+107%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 48¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -3516%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$5 -4638%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$5 +12372%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$15 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.29 · official $17.69 (match) · 3500 history records