Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3d4d…73ee crypto 1059 markets active 1d ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%509W / 615L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day75.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$958
7 days−$948
14 days−$751
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -82.0% -83.7% 7% 7% -93.4%
≤30d 729 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 44% -12.5%
≤90d 1124 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 45% -14.0%
all 1124 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 45% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 45% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 44% -22.2%
15% -34.1% 44% -29.7%
20% -40.5% 42% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses509 / 615
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1124 / 1059
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day75.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1124 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $56 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records