Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d4a…4256 other 144 markets active 15h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$764 (+4%) realized +$683 · open +$81
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate72%85W / 33L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$237
14 days−$660
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$248
finance 22% +$448
sports 18% −$462
world 12% +$387
tech 3% +$35
politics 2% +$23
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.8% -18.4% 71% 29% -12.0%
≤30d 75 -5.2% -14.2% 64% 32% -11.6%
≤90d 102 -2.8% -12.0% 69% 30% -8.7%
all 118 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 36% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 36% -7.0%
10% -18.5% 14% -15.9%
15% -26.4% 8% -24.0%
20% -33.6% 4% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$36 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized+$683
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses85 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions26
Markets (closed)118 / 144
History coverage192d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 53¢ 90¢ $24 $41 +$17 (+70%)
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 63¢ 70¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 27¢ 72¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+167%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 58¢ 64¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 18¢ $7 $22 +$15 (+208%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 50¢ 51¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 50¢ 66¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 36¢ 60¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+65%)
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 56¢ 58¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Senegal finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 63¢ 76¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+20%)
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 63¢ 88¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 54¢ 72¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Iran finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 62¢ 80¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 64¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 69¢ 68¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 49¢ 52¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 65¢ 68¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 62¢ 68¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 38¢ 46¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 68¢ 82¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 66¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 40¢ 27¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 22¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will South Korea finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $40 +$2 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $231 −$4 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $31 −$8 -27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $220 −$219 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $181 +$19 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $256 +$44 +17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 +$15 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $283 +$17 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $73 +$10 +14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $316 +$5 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $811 −$42 -5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$9 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,333 +$99 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $288 +$12 +4%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $274 +$26 +10%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $83 +$2 +2%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $45 −$4 -9%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $67 −$5 -7%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $74 −$9 -12%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $73 −$6 -8%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $17 −$2 -10%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $8 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $16 −$5 -29%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Team Rey (BO3) - MPL Mala Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Galorys (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Jun 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P Jun 02 $117 −$117 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18? Jun 02 $441 −$201 -46%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $17 +$6 +36%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $7 +$4 +58%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1? Jun 01 $56 +$105 +186%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q May 31 $34 +$6 +17%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $49 −$15 -30%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Le May 31 $15 +$3 +19%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $464 +$21 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 28? May 28 $5 −$1 -16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 26? May 26 $106 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? May 26 $6 $0 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $11 −$4 -42%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - CCT South Ameri May 24 $32 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $55 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 67¢ $13 14h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 67¢ $7 15h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 67¢ $10 15h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 67¢ $5 15h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 67¢ $1 16h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 67¢ $3 16h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 67¢ $3 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $227 25h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $231 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 58¢ $23 42h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 85¢ $85 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 90¢ $90 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 88¢ $88 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 78¢ $12 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 93¢ $47 43h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $256 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $319 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $181 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $305 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $73 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $283 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $192 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 50¢ $290 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $285 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $194 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 84¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.67 · official $344.69 (match) · 592 history records