Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d49…b995 sports 667 markets active 4h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-3%) realized −$51 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%329W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$54
14 days+$39
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$35
other 25% −$29
crypto 19% −$23
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +42.2% +28.7% 45% 45% +37.4%
≤30d 154 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 44% -7.3%
≤90d 533 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 44% -13.2%
all 659 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 48% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 48% -10.6%
10% -20.0% 46% -19.1%
15% -27.8% 42% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 37% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses329 / 330
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)659 / 667
History coverage98d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $3 +$10 +341%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 17 $5 +$12 +238%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $6 −$3 -43%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$1 -23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $19 +$23 +122%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $5 +$11 +244%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +160%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +153%
Spread: Maccabi Tel-Aviv (-13.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$4 -83%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $54 −$45 -84%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $2 +$6 +303%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $5 +$8 +172%
Kataller Toyama vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 +$4 +74%
Ehime FC vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Both Teams to Score May 30 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Ehime FC vs. Roasso Kumamoto end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 172.5 May 30 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) May 30 $4 +$4 +90%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $5 −$1 -22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $7 +$3 +49%
South Africa leading at halftime? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) May 29 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 29 $3 +$3 +90%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $4 +$3 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $4 +$6 +137%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $4 −$1 -33%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $2 +$1 +59%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $3 +$2 +73%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $7 +$8 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina SELL 42¢ $13 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $5 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $10 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 34¢ $3 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $6 14h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv SELL Hapoel Tel-Aviv 37¢ $8 15h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 45¢ $10 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY $3 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 29¢ $5 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Wil BUY 31¢ $5 39h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 18¢ $4 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 16¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'I BUY $4 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türki BUY 12¢ $5 3d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 17¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Sw BUY 11¢ $4 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY 16¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 SELL 98¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 37¢ $4 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win BUY 29¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.92 · official $22.92 (match) · 1381 history records