Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d49…0cc1 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%39W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$11
crypto 9% +$2
politics 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 +0.3% -9.3% 76% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses39 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage538d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $39 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 04 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $5,671 −$11 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $11 $0 +2%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $40 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 11 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Mar 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $14 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $275 by February 28 2025? Feb 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 26 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 64d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 93d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 121d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 123d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 97¢ $39 150d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 182d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 182d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 241d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $30 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 274d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $36 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 301d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 303d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 99¢ $17 335d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $32 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 99¢ $29 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 396d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5,660 412d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.71 · official $64.71 (match) · 111 history records