Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3D 0x3d49…b35c other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-4%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 47% +$54
other 36% +$14
culture 10% −$124
politics 7% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤30d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤90d 4 -18.3% -26.1% 75% 25% -18.4%
all 9 -1.1% -10.5% 78% 22% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 22% -13.8%
10% -19.1% 11% -22.1%
15% -26.9% 11% -29.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$62 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage236d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $243 $243 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $204 +$35 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 06 $199 +$11 +5%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 02 $192 +$8 +4%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 11 $177 +$14 +8%
EU dissolves before 2027? Dec 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during S Dec 01 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Nov 04 $30 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $243 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $239 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $204 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 95¢ $199 66d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $192 93d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $34 184d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $34 184d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $144 191d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 191d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during S BUY Yes 70¢ $7 212d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 62¢ $124 220d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 226d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 234d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 94¢ $37 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.88 · official $242.88 (match) · 21 history records