Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3D 0x3d49…a319 sports 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,929 (-5%) realized −$4,929 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate72%224W / 88L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$458est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$380
30 days−$6,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$3,936
other 15% −$1,521
world 1% +$20
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.2% -15.1% 75% 62% -16.5%
≤30d 90 -23.6% -30.8% 49% 46% -55.1%
≤90d 312 -5.3% -14.3% 72% 47% -14.4%
all 312 -5.3% -14.3% 72% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 47% -14.4%
10% -22.5% 25% -22.6%
15% -30.0% 14% -30.1%
20% -36.9% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$216 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,929
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses224 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$458
Open positions0
Markets (closed)312 / 312
History coverage70d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 312 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $113 +$20 +18%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $98 +$14 +14%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $19 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $100 +$12 +12%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $101 +$28 +27%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $18 +$14 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $26 −$26 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 +$7 +237%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$29 -88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$6 +151%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $83 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $97 −$96 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$21 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $260 +$38 +15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$17 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$6 -32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $69 +$51 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $57 +$12 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $34 +$23 +67%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$7 +123%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $82 −$82 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $101 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $286 +$13 +4%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $82 −$73 -89%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 08 $38 −$38 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $132 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $94 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 88¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $113 5h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 87¢ $98 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $20 20h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 96¢ $19 20h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 93¢ $100 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $112 24h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 89¢ $100 24h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $128 24h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 78¢ $101 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 49¢ $32 47h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $32 47h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 56¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $4 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 59¢ $26 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $3 11d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 19¢ $3 11d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 7¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $33 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $33 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $25 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $10 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $10 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $4 12d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $99 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 681 history records