Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3D 0x3d46…feef crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$325 (+5%) realized +$332 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%45W / 26L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$326
14 days−$326
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$111
world 15% −$265
politics 13% +$161
crypto 11% −$54
sports 7% +$387
economics 2% −$5
finance 2% −$4
tech 2% +$7
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 50% -44.6%
≤30d 10 -9.8% -18.4% 60% 60% -32.0%
≤90d 26 -36.0% -42.1% 31% 31% -23.4%
all 71 -0.4% -9.9% 63% 49% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 49% -4.4%
10% -18.5% 39% -13.5%
15% -26.4% 25% -21.9%
20% -33.6% 15% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$49 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized+$332
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses45 / 26
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage398d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 64¢ 62¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 63¢ 46¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 64¢ 86¢ $38 $51 +$13 (+34%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 18 $136 −$57 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Tota Jun 17 $60 +$27 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 16 $306 −$306 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 16 $200 +$49 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $92 +$41 +45%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $51 +$40 +79%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $126 +$465 +369%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025? Mar 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 3? Mar 21 $48 +$24 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 9 at 5P Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Mar 21 $131 −$11 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 16? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7? Mar 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? Mar 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Mar 21 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Mar 21 $209 −$100 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 2 at 5P Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 01 $96 +$6 +6%
Will no listed leader be out in 2025? Jan 03 $227 +$73 +32%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 08 $56 +$50 +89%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Nov 21 $31 +$11 +36%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 09 $200 +$26 +13%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Nov 07 $212 +$15 +7%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4? Nov 06 $29 −$11 -37%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 05 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 04 $200 +$12 +6%
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? Nov 02 $400 +$31 +8%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Nov 02 $95 +$7 +7%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $369 +$16 +4%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31? Nov 01 $300 +$137 +46%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 30 $7 $0 +7%
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? Oct 25 $20 +$80 +399%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 22 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 13 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 12 $21 +$3 +15%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30? Oct 01 $248 +$70 +28%
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Sep 29 $122 +$7 +6%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 25 $111 +$11 +10%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 25 $7 −$7 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 64¢ $101 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $36 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 26¢ $35 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Tota BUY 69¢ $60 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $100 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 40h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $100 47h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $249 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 3d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 69¢ $92 27d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY No 54¢ $306 34d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $591 42d
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 56¢ $51 71d
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 71d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $101 136d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? BUY No 83¢ $109 148d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? SELL No 94¢ $109 153d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $96 156d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? BUY No 86¢ $100 157d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 161d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $200 164d
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025? BUY No 78¢ $42 209d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $42 209d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $126 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.30 · official $371.33 (match) · 233 history records