Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

3D 0x3d46…b907 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$6 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-24.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-16.8%	-24.7%	75%	25%	-2.7%
≤30d	4	-16.8%	-24.7%	75%	25%	-2.7%
≤90d	4	-16.8%	-24.7%	75%	25%	-2.7%
all	4	-16.8%	-24.7%	75%	25%	-2.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.7%	25%	-2.7%
10%	-31.9%	0%	-12.0%
15%	-38.5%	0%	-20.5%
20%	-44.5%	0%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$103

Realized+$6

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$83	$83	−$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$12	$11	−$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	$0	+8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$62	+$13	+21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$8	−$8	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$34	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$5	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$12	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	92¢	$5	10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	49¢	$1	10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$1	10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$8	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$42	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$20	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.95 · official $102.95 (match) · 15 history records