Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3D 0x3d44…d9ad other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$820 (-27%) realized −$862 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%34W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$53
politics 18% −$300
sports 14% −$154
crypto 10% +$17
tech 8% −$68
economics 6% −$41
world 5% −$150
culture 3% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 4 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤90d 4 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 50% +4.9%
all 106 -25.7% -32.8% 32% 31% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 31% -41.9%
10% -39.2% 27% -47.5%
15% -45.1% 25% -52.6%
20% -50.5% 23% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized−$862
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses34 / 72
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)106 / 113
History coverage653d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 53¢ 99¢ $98 $183 +$84 (+86%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 25¢ $150 $112 −$38 (-25%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $71 $69 −$2 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Hayden Davis in jail in 2025? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Jan 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Jan 31 $25 −$25 -100%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jan 31 $25 +$2 +9%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jan 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jan 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $147 −$147 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? Jan 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 31 $95 −$95 -100%
X Money launch in 2025? Dec 25 $10 +$36 +360%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025? Dec 25 $25 +$25 +99%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 25 $99 +$81 +81%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $25 +$71 +285%
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30? Jul 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jul 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jul 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in June? Jul 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 16 $100 +$47 +47%
Nationals vs. Mets Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
White Sox vs. Astros Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Dodgers vs. Padres Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Rays vs. Red Sox Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Yankees vs. Royals Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals Jun 12 $5 +$1 +30%
Giants vs. Rockies Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Athletics vs. Angels Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Jun 12 $5 +$4 +75%
Braves vs. Brewers Jun 12 $5 +$4 +89%
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Marlins vs. Pirates Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Dodgers vs. Padres Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Cubs vs. Phillies Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Angels Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Braves vs. Brewers Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump approval >40% on June 1? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $73 53m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 56m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 56m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 57m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 58m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 15h
X Money launch in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $46 173d
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $50 173d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $180 173d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $98 173d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $99 295d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $150 295d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 61¢ $147 366d
Thunder vs. Pacers BUY Thunder 68¢ $100 369d
Oilers vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 58¢ $53 370d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 42¢ $49 371d
Rays vs. Red Sox BUY Red Sox 83¢ $5 371d
Nationals vs. Mets BUY Nationals 67¢ $5 371d
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks BUY Diamondbacks 57¢ $5 371d
Dodgers vs. Padres BUY Dodgers 51¢ $5 371d
Athletics vs. Angels BUY Angels 61¢ $5 371d
Giants vs. Rockies BUY Giants 65¢ $5 371d
White Sox vs. Astros BUY Astros 61¢ $5 371d
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals BUY Blue Jays 77¢ $5 371d
Yankees vs. Royals BUY Yankees 82¢ $5 371d
Braves vs. Brewers BUY Brewers 53¢ $5 371d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 372d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.28 · official $603.28 (match) · 515 history records